PALESTINIAN CENSUS TO GO AHEAD:

THE POWER OF NUMBERS

by Rose-Marie Barbeau

The first comprehensive national census of the Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is to be carried out in December. The Palestinian Authority is carrying out public awareness campaigns, including advertisements in the major daily newspapers, informing people throughout the country that on December 9, they should expect a knock on the door from one of an estimated 18,000 census-takers and be ready to answer all questions put to them. In 24 hours, it will all be over, and then the enormous task of inputting and analyzing all the data will begin.

The long-awaited population census has ramifications far beyond the simple head-count of people. Since the Israeli occupation in 1967, there has been an ongoing battle of the numbers between Palestinians and Israelis, each side seeking to reinforce its view with statistics which had long ago lost any real claim to accuracy.

Throughout the years of occupation, the Israelis minimized and maximized as needed -- lower population figures, lower infant mortality rates, higher levels of income, higher standards of living -- all to demonstrate the positive impact of a "benign occupation". A census, with its comprehensive baseline data, would have been invaluable to Palestinian organizations assessing need, and planning and implementing health, educational and economic strategy in the absence of a national government. But the last census in the West Bank and Gaza Strip was that carried out by the Israeli military after the war in 1967 -- and one of the aims of that census had been to exclude the many people who were caught outside, even just across the river in Jordan, from being able to claim residency in lands occupied by Israel.

Thus, the December 1967 census was the mechanism by which the Israeli authorities capitalized on the major population shift which had occurred as people fled to Jordan and elsewhere to escape the hostilities, or left shortly after the war in desperation, to study or travel. Anyone not physically present when the census was carried out had their rights of residency in their homeland effectively revoked, as they did not then receive the Israeli-assigned number which would allow them "residency" in the country. The Israeli-assigned number remains to this day on the passports issued by the Palestinian Authority.

From the beginning of the handover to the Palestinian Authority, there have been plans for a nationwide census. From its inception, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) has been working with statistics handed down by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, supplementing with their own extensive fieldwork and numerous independent surveys. Now, with approximately US$6 million in funding, from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the governments of Norway and the United Kingdom, among others, the PCBS is ready to go ahead and establish its own independent statistics.

The importance of baseline data such as that established by a comprehensive census cannot be overstated. The socioeconomic development of the country in every sector will be determined by the data provided, in that accurate and reliable needs assessment can finally be carried out. Yet, that the census is still seen as a political tool is evidenced by the Israeli government's recent pronouncements banning Palestinian census-taking in East Jerusalem. Some Palestinian officials denied that census activities would be carried out; others demanded to know why Jerusalemites were being barred from the census when under the terms of the Oslo agreements, their status as Palestinians was provisionally recognized by their participation in the Legislative Council/presidential elections of 1996. Other officials are hinting at alternative ways of getting the census data from Jerusalem-area residents, without actually going door-to-door in Jerusalem. Certainly, Jerusalem, where the Israeli authorities consistently downplay the size and needs of the Palestinian community, serves as a demonstration of how a census can establish what the true facts on the ground are and thus can be an effective political tool.