Accounting and Finance Department Research Seminar

Friday, February 13, 2026 at 11:00am to 12:15pm

The Department of Accounting & Finance announces the following research seminar.

Speaker: Professor. Jie Zhou (California State University, Fullerton)
Title: Analysts’ Explicit Forecasts of the Number of Shares Outstanding

Date: Friday, February 13, 2026
Time: 11:00 AM-12:15 PM
Location: via Zoom Meeting
Meeting ID: 438 755 1509

Abstract:

Financial analysts’ forecasts of a firm’s earnings per share (EPS) involve the numerator—aggregate earnings—and the denominator—the number of shares outstanding (NSO). Very little is known about whether analysts explicitly provide NSO forecasts. This gap is surprising given the ubiquitous research on per share forecasts. We find that analysts’ explicit NSO forecasts are more accurate than naïve forecasts based on a random walk and more accurate than implicit forecasts, which can be derived from forecasts of aggregate earnings and EPS on the same day. We document two implications of NSO forecasts. First, analysts who regularly forecast NSO provide more accurate forecasts, consistent with differential skills. Second, NSO forecasts appear to have a disciplining effect on managers, as we find that firms with at least one NSO analyst forecast are less likely to engage in accretive stock repurchases in the subsequent fiscal year.

For additional information, please contact Prof. Hongkang Xu

Zoom
Hongkang Xu
5089999187
hxu5@umassd.edu